The potential impact of climate change on Taiwan's agriculture
利用产量回归模型和数学规划模型，估计气候变化对台湾60种作物产量及社会福利的影响，发现变暖对整体社会无害，但降水增加可能对农民造成严重损失。
Abstract This paper intends to estimate the potential impact of climate change on Taiwan's agricultural sector. Yield response regression models are used to investigate the climate change's impact on 60 crops. A price‐endogenous mathematical programming model is then used to simulate the welfare impacts of yield changes under various climate change scenarios. Results suggest that both warming and climate variations have a significant but non‐monotonic impact on crop yields. Society as a whole would not suffer from warming, but a precipitation increase may be devastating to farmers.