Myth and Reality of China's Seventeenth-Century Monetary Crisis
质疑了十七世纪中国因白银进口锐减导致明朝灭亡的流行假说，指出中国白银需求由本土货币需求决定，而非短期进口波动。
The impact of China's demand for silver on global trade in specie and monetary metals during the sixteenth and seventeenth centuries remains poorly understood. Conventional wisdom postulates that seventeenth-century China became so dependent on foreign silver to sustain domestic economic growth that a sharp fall in silver imports in the 1640s led to the fall of the Ming dynasty in 1644. This hypothesis rests on dubious theoretical and empirical grounds. The demand for silver in China was determined by long-term changes in indigenous demand for money rather than short-term fluctuations in the flow of silver imports.