The Adjustment of Consumption to Changing Expectations About Future Income
分析当前收入如何提供未来收入的新信息，从而改变永久收入。通过时间序列量化收入冲击对永久收入的修正，构建结构性消费模型，发现理性预期-永久收入假说被显著拒绝，并调和了Sargent与Hall的消费研究。
The paper analyzes the role of current income in providing new information about future income and thus signalling changes in permanent income. Using time-series analysis to quantify the revision in permanent income induced by an innovation in the current income process, a structural econometric model of consumption is developed. The rejection of the joint rational expectations-permanent income hypothesis is both statistically and quantitatively significant. The paper also shows that the test of the rational expectations-permanent income hypothesis proposed by Hall is based on the reduced form of this structural model and reconciles Sargent's consumption paper with Hall's.