A Structural Approach to Explaining Incomplete Exchange-Rate Pass-Through and Pricing-to-Market
提出一种结构性方法来理解汇率传递的决定因素,帮助预测未来传递模式并指导回归设定,对研究汇率与进口价格关系的学者有用。
The continuing depreciation of the dollar against other major currencies, coupled with concerns about the impact of China’s exchange-rate policy on domestic prices, has spurred new interest in the exchange-rate pass-through literature. A recent study by economists at the Board of Governors attracted wide attention by documenting a steady decline over the past decade in the pass-through of exchange rates into U.S. import prices. This finding was later challenged by a study published by the Federal Reserve Bank of New York (see Mario Marazzi et al (2005) versus Rebecca Hellerstein, Deirdre Daly, and Christina Marsh (2006)), which demonstrated that the finding of such a decline depends crucially on the specification of the pass-through regression, and in particular the inclusion of commodity prices. This exchange highlights the need to understand the structural determinants of exchange rate pass-through, not only because such understanding is important when trying to forecast future pass-through patterns, but also because it provides guidance regarding the specification of the appropriate reduced-form regression, and more generally, measurement of pass-through. The increased availability of micro data on prices and quantities means that research uncov-ering these determinants is more promising than ever. This paper lays out a structural approach