SUPPLY CONTROL WITH LIMITED INFORMATION: AN ECONOMETRIC STUDY OF TOBACCO PRODUCTION IN GREECE
针对希腊出口烟草控制程度缺乏直接数据的问题，构建统计指标衡量控制对产量的影响，估计长期价格弹性约为3，正常控制下降至2以下，控制对产量的长期影响约30%。
In the absence of explicit data that would facilitate a direct measure of the variable degree of control over exportable tobacco in Greece, a statistical measure was devised for it corresponding to the probability that control did adversely affect production in a particular year. This was measured by simulating the supply equations from the free market period over the control period and relating the discrepancies to the standard errors of the simulated values. The period 1948–1980 was re‐analysed using this control variable jointly with lagged prices as supplementary ‘independent’ variables. The best estimate of the long‐run price elasticity is considered to be near 3 but falls below 2 with a normal degree of control. The normal long‐run effect of control on production was near 30%. Other effects of considerable importance were the level of the rural population, weather and trend. The analysis required the use of several sophisticated econometric techniques including Schmidt's formula for the error of a cumulative projection.