Alternative Mortgage Instruments, Qualification Constraints and the Demand for Housing: An Empirical Analysis
利用1988-1989年美国全国数据，分析政府担保抵押贷款和可调利率抵押贷款对住房需求的影响，发现两者分别通过放松贷款价值比和还款收入比约束，使住房需求增加约12.2%。
Government‐guaranteed mortgage loans (GFRMs) and adjustable‐rate mortgages (ARMs) were introduced to make payment to income (PTI) and loan‐to‐value (LTV) qualification conventions less restrictive. This paper analyzes the effect of GFRMs and ARMs on the demand for housing. Using a large national data set for the 1988 to 1989 period, we employ a two‐stage procedure to estimate housing demand. In the first stage, a multinomial logit model estimates the probability of choosing an FRM, ARM or GFRM. Predicted values from the logit are used to construct user costs and estimate housing demand. Using the model estimates, we simulate demand under four different mortgage availability regimes: FRM, FRM and GFRM, FRM and ARM and all three. These simulations indicate that GFRMs, by relaxing LTV constraints, increase housing demand by approximately 6.2% relative to the FRM regime; the addition of ARMs, by relaxing both PTI and LTV constraints, raises demand by an additional 6%, for a total of 12.2% with inclusion of all alternatives.