极小化极大方法处理模型不确定性的陷阱

Pitfalls of a Minimax Approach to Model Uncertainty

American Economic Review · 2001
被引 115
人大 A+FT50ABS 4*

中文导读

指出极小化极大方法在规范分析与描述分析间混淆,且货币政策应用中只关注模型次要方面的不确定性,却对更重要方面做了强假设。

Abstract

(i) It does not always keep the normative analysis of decision-making distinct from its descriptive analysis, losing sight of the fact that these methods are appealing shortcut approximations, not improvements on, decision-making based on the Savage axioms. (ii) In all the existing applications to monetary policy it analyzes uncertainty about relatively unimportant aspects of models, while making strong, but actually uncertain, assumptions about other, more important aspects.

模型不确定性极小极大方法决策理论货币政策