Are Future Taxes Discounted?
实证检验公众是否认识到当前赤字支出隐含的未来税收，发现公众并未直接认识到，但基于有效市场和永久收入假说的新假说使总体经济表现如同已认识到。
IN THIS PAPER, I examine empirically the question of whether or not the public recognizes the future taxes implied by current deficitfinanced expenditures, as discussed by Barro [1]. It seems that such recognition does not occur but that, by a new hypothesis presented here, the aggregate economy behaves much as if it did. This alternative hypothesis relies on the widely accepted efficient markets and permanent income hypotheses, and it requires considerably less sophistication and information on the part of the average economic agent than does Barro's hypothesis.