Estimating the returns to schooling: a likelihood approach based on normal mixtures
提出一种基于有限混合正态分布的似然方法，用于联合估计教育选择与收入方程，在挪威数据上发现该模型比多元正态基准模型更好地拟合对数收入的厚尾分布。
Abstract In this paper we develop likelihood‐based methods for statistical inference in a joint system of equations for the choice of length of schooling and earnings. The model for schooling choice is assumed to be an ordered probit model, whereas the earnings equation contains variables that are flexible transformations of schooling and experience, with corresponding coefficients that are allowed to be heterogeneous across individuals. Under the assumption that the distribution of the random terms of the model can be expressed as a finite mixture of multinormal distributions, we show that the joint probability distribution for schooling and earnings can be expressed on closed form. In an application of our method on Norwegian data, we find that the mixed Gaussian model offers a substantial improvement in fit to the (heavy‐tailed) empirical distribution of log‐earnings compared to a multinormal benchmark model. Copyright © 2010 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.