The Sullying Effect of Recessions
在已有模型中加入在职搜寻,发现衰退期不仅会淘汰低生产率岗位(清洁效应),还会产生更大的污损效应,即新创造的岗位多为低薪临时工,解释了就业质量为何随经济周期同向变动。
Previous work has established that recessions involve a “cleansing” effect, so that in downturns, only high productivity jobs remain. But empirical evidence suggests job quality is procyclical: jobs created in recessions are likely to be low-paying and temporary. This paper modifies previous models by adding on-the-job search, which leads to an additional “sullying” effect. Calibration of the model suggests this offsetting sullying effect is likely to be much larger than the cleansing effect, and can account for the procyclical match quality we observe in the data. Copyright 2002, Wiley-Blackwell.