THE SIGNIFICANCE OF BASE YEAR IN DEVELOPING FAILURE PREDICTION MODELS
基于1960-1971年53家英国破产公司的财务数据，使用多元判别分析构建了破产前1至5年的预测模型，发现破产前5年的模型表现不亚于前1年的模型。
Most failure prediction models developed over the past fifteen years have been based on firms' financial characteristics one year before they collapsed. This article reports the results of a study employing multiple discriminant analysis on a sample of fifty‐three British companies which failed over the period 1960–1971. Models were developed on various financial ratios and an industry indicator for each of the five years, prior to failure, and the results in fact show that the model developed from data five years before failure performed at least as well as that derived one year prior to bankruptcy.