Trade exposure and income volatility in cash-crop exporting developing countries
研究了世界商品价格波动对依赖农业出口的发展中国家收入风险的影响，通过一般均衡模型模拟发现，不同政策在稳定收入方差方面效果差异显著。
World commodity price volatility generates an aggregate macroeconomic risk for the many developing countries that are dependent on the export of a few agricultural commodities. Usual income indicators should therefore take into account the corresponding risk premium, especially for households close to subsistence level. A risk-augmented income distribution would yield a very different ranking of the policies often used to alleviate the domestic impact of world price volatility. This paper gives illustrative examples using simulations generated by a general equilibrium model with random prices for cash crops. Results show that policies that are similar in terms of expected average income can have quite different effects in terms of income variances.