Comment: Assessing the Accuracy of Time Series Mode! Forecasts of Count Observations
提出两种评估Harvey-Fernandes模型预测准确性的方法：一是采用气象预报员准确度评估指标，二是用非参数预测模型作为基准，并以英格兰对苏格兰进球数据为例说明。
In this article, I suggest two approaches for assessing the accuracy of the Harvey-Fernandes model forecasts. First, I suggest using measures of forecast accuracy that were originally developed to assess and compare the accuracy of weather forecasters. Second, I suggest using a simple nonparametric forecasting model, originally developed for use with computerized inventory-control algorithms, as a benchmark against which to gauge the amount of improvement afforded by the more sophisticated Harvey-Fernandes models. I illustrate these two approaches using Harvey and Fernandes's first data example-goals scored by England against Scotland.