A Determination of the Risk of Ruin: Reply
回应了Emery和Cogger对安全指数及破产风险推导和解释的质疑,指出其理论上的局限性在实践中很少发生,并提出了改进估计方法的扩展方向。
To sum up, Emery and Cogger [5] have raised several interesting questions concerning the derivation of the safety index (as well as the related risk of ruin) and the interpretation of that index which needed to be addressed. While the potential limitations discussed are theoretically possible, closer examination reveals that most of the concerns raised are unlikely to occur in practical applications, although certain of the procedures utilized were in need of further explanation. Several of these issues also provide extensions of the present work to make the estimation of the risk of ruin an even more robust measure of the potential for corporate failure.