The Impact of Analysts' Forecast Errors and Forecast Revisions on Stock Prices
分析股票回报与季度盈利预测误差、季度及年度预测修正的关系，发现三者均影响股价，且第四季度效应显著，预测质量随时间提升。
Abstract: We present a comprehensive analysis of the association between stock returns, quarterly earnings forecast errors, and quarter‐ahead and year‐ahead earnings forecast revisions. We find that forecast errors and the two forecast revisions have significant effects on stock prices, indicating each conveys information content. Findings also show that the fourth quarter differs from other quarters—the relative importance of the forecast error (quarter‐ahead forecast revision) is lower (higher). We also find a marked upward shift over time in the forecast error and forecast revision coefficients, consistent with the I/B/E/S database reflecting an improved quality of both earnings forecasts and actual earnings.