Regional Occupational Employment Projections: Modeling Supply Constraints in the Direct‐Requirements Approach*
检验了美国劳工统计局职业就业预测中劳动力供给无限弹性的假设，并评估了基于人口统计的劳动力供给模块作为现有方法的补充。
Detailed industry‐occupation employment forecasts are an important class of regional labor market information produced by the U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics. In theory, the forecasts should improve the national, interregional, and intertemporal matching efficiency of labor markets. But the efficiency argument is dependent on the quality of the forecasts. The methodology used to produce the projections is still fundamentally a demand‐requirements approach that implicitly assumes that labor supply is infinitely elastic for every occupation. This paper examines the validity of that assumption and evaluates a demographically based labor supply module as an adjunct to the current methodology.