Why Are Professional Forecasters Biased? Agency versus Behavioral Explanations
探讨专业预测者为何存在预测偏差，提出理性预测者会在最小化误差和模仿优秀预测者模式之间权衡，但实证发现偏差方向与能力差的预测者一致，支持行为解释而非代理解释。
Professional forecasters may not simply aim to minimize expected squared forecast errors. In models with repeated forecasts the pattern of forecasts reveals valuable information about the forecasters even before the outcome is realized. Rational forecasters will compromise between minimizing errors and mimicking prediction patterns typical of able forecasters. Simple models based on this argument imply that forecasts are biased in the direction of forecasts typical of able forecasters. Our models of strategic bias are rejected empirically as forecasts are biased in directions typical of forecasters with large mean squared forecast errors. This observation is consistent with behavioral explanations of forecast bias.