The Impact of Trade Liberalisation on Exports, Imports and the Balance of payments of Developing Countries
用22个发展中国家的面板数据，发现贸易自由化刺激了出口增长，但进口增长更多，导致贸易和国际收支恶化，对自由化的顺序和程度有重要启示。
This paper uses panel data and times series/cross section analysis to estimate the effect of trade liberalisation on export growth, import growth, the balance of trade and the balance of payments for a sample of 22 developing countries that have adopted trade liberalisation policies since the mid-1970s. We find that liberalisation stimulated export growth but raised import growth by more, leading to a worsening of the balance of trade and payments. To the extent that this has constrained the growth of output and living standards, the findings have important implications for the sequencing and degree of liberalisation. Copyright 2004 Royal Economic Society.