The Effectiveness of Simple Decision Heuristics: Forecasting Commercial Success for Early-Stage Ventures
研究专家如何用简单决策规则预测早期创业项目能否商业化，发现一种结合好坏因素计数的模型准确率高达91.8%，对实际决策有参考价值。
We investigate the decision heuristics used by experts to forecast that early-stage ventures are subsequently commercialized. Experts evaluate 37 project characteristics and subjectively combine data on all cues by examining both critical flaws and positive factors to arrive at a forecast. A conjunctive model is used to describe their process, which sums “good” and “bad” cue counts separately. This model achieves a 91.8% forecasting accuracy of the experts’ correct forecasts. The model correctly predicts 86.0% of outcomes in out-of-sample, out-of-time tests. Results indicate that reasonably simple decision heuristics can perform well in a natural and very difficult decision-making context.