Business cycle analysis without much theory A look at structural VARs
评估结构向量自回归（SVAR）在商业周期研究中的实用性，指出其仅施加弱理论约束以追求稳健推断，但结论的稳健性存疑，并探讨了识别失败问题。
This paper examines the usefulness of applying structural vector autoregressions (SVARs) to the study of business cycles. The SVAR approach aims to provide robust inferences, by imposing only weak theoretical restrictions. We illustrate that the robustness of conclusions drawn from SVAR exercises are questionable. We also examine the problem of identification failure in structural VAR models.