On the Rationality of Forecasts
提出一种方法，根据时间序列y的ARIMA过程推导理性预测y^e的ARIMA过程，并用该方法检验y^e是否为y的强理性预测，最后应用于货币市场服务公司的通胀预期调查数据。
This paper discusses a method of deriving the univariate ARIMA process followed by a time series of rational forecasts y(superscript e) of a series y, given the ARIMA process followed by y. The method suggests examination of the empirical ARIMA process followed by y(superscript e) as a test of the hypothesis that y(superscript e) is a rational forecast of y in a strong sense. The method is applied to a measure of expected inflation: the survey data conducted by Money Market Service, Inc., of money market participants. Copyright 1991 by MIT Press.