Does Anticipated Monetary Policy Matter? An Econometric Investigation
针对卢卡斯、萨金特和华莱士提出的政策无效命题，开发了一种实证分析方法，检验预期货币政策是否影响经济周期波动。
A heated debate has arisen over the policy ineffectiveness proposition associate with the work of Lucas, Sargent, and Wallace. It postulates that anticipated aggregate demand policy will have no effect on business-cycle fluctuations, so that one deterministic, feedback policy rule is as good as any other from the point of view of stabilizing the economy. This paper develops a methodology for empirically analyzing rational-expectations models displaying this neutrality result and then applies it to the important question of whether anticipated monetary policy matters to the business cycle.