Estimating the Effects of Consumer Incentive Programs on Domestic Automobile Sales
利用时间序列方法分析1983至1987年间美国三大汽车制造商的促销活动，发现1985和1986年的年终激励效果显著，但1987年效果不佳，且促销后销量大幅下滑。
Abstract We investigate the effects of consumer sales promotion on automobile sales, the largest dollar-volume durable-goods category in retailing. Between 1985 and 1987, the domestic automakers offered major year-end promotions on automobiles, using low-rate financing and cash rebates to stimulate sales. This article uses time series techniques to evaluate the sales patterns for General Motors, Ford, and Chrysler between 1983 and 1987, explicitly estimating the effects of the incentive programs. The analysis indicates that the 1985 and 1986 promotional campaigns were quite successful but that the 1987 campaign was largely ineffective. The 1986 and 1987 promotions were also followed by large post-promotion drops in sales. The analysis contains two notable findings that are in contrast with the considerable body of empirical evidence about the effects of promotion on nondurable goods. KEY WORDS: Durable goodsIntervention analysisSales promotionTrading day adjustment