Regressive Interest Rate Expectations and Mortgage Instrument Choice in the United Kingdom Housing Market
研究了英国住房市场中，当短期固定利率抵押贷款到期后转为浮动利率时，家庭如何选择贷款工具。首次用英国数据直接检验回归型利率预期，并考察财富和投资组合效应，发现家庭确实存在回归型利率预期，但财富和投资组合效应不显著。
The paper considers the choice of mortgage instrument when the rate of interest is fixed for a short duration, with reversion to a variable (bullet) rate mortgage contract. The research is the first direct test for regressive interest rate expectations using United Kingdom data while testing for wealth and portfolio effects. The econometric modeling uses a variety of nonparametric and parametric techniques to control for classification error in the dependent variable. There is evidence that households adopt regressive interest rate expectations. The lack of statistical significance of wealth and portfolio effects confirms the short run cash flow perspective of United Kingdom mortgage choices.