Oil Price Uncertainty
研究了油价不确定性对投资、耐用品消费和总产出的负面影响，发现油价波动会加剧经济对负面油价冲击的消极反应，同时减弱对正面冲击的反应。
The theories of investment under uncertainty and real options predict that uncertainty about, for example, oil prices will tend to depress current investment. We reinvestigate the relationship between the price of oil and investment, focusing on the role of uncertainty about oil prices. We find that volatility in oil prices has had a negative and statistically significant effect on several measures of investment, durables consumption, and aggregate output. We also find that accounting for the effects of oil price volatility tends to exacerbate the negative dynamic response of economic activity to a negative oil price shock, while dampening the response to a positive oil price shock.