Sub-Saharan Africa’s growth, South–South trade and the generalised balance-of-payments constraint
基于后凯恩斯国际收支约束增长理论，研究1990-2008年20个撒哈拉以南非洲国家的增长，发现南南贸易通过不同渠道缓解了国际收支约束，有助于理解该地区增长复苏的可持续性。
Using the post-Keynesian balance-of-payments constrained growth approach, we investigate the recent increase in Sub-Saharan Africa (SSA) growth, focussing on the contribution of South-South trade. The model is estimated by panel co-integration on a sample of 20 low- and lower-middle-income SSA countries, using annual data from 1990 to 2008, and considering three partner areas: SSA itself, developing Asia and the rest of the world. The results show that in the past decade the balance-of-payments constraint of SSA has been relaxed. This shift has occurred through different channels of transmission: the other SSA countries contributed through the real growth effect, developing Asia through the market share effect and the rest of the world through the terms of trade effect. These results help reconcile puzzling evidence on the pattern of SSA external indebtedness and provide new insights on the role of ‘Asian drivers’ on SSA growth, as well as on the sustainability of SSA growth recovery.