Induced Innovation in United States Agriculture, 1880–1990: Time Series Tests and an Error Correction Model
基于两阶段CES生产函数构建误差修正模型，利用1880-1990年美国数据检验诱导创新假说，发现要素价格比和研发投入是技术变革偏向的格兰杰原因，证实了诱导创新在美国农业发展中的作用。
Abstract An error correction model (ECM) of induced innovation, based on the two‐stage CES production function allows direct tests of the inducement hypothesis, which are applied to U.S. data for 1880–1990. The time series properties of the variables include a structural break in 1920, cointegration is established and an ECM constructed, which allows factor substitution to be separated from technological change. Causality tests show that the factor‐price ratios and R…D are Granger‐prior to the factor‐saving biases of technological change. The inducement hypothesis is corroborated, and identified as one factor in the complex development of U.S. agriculture.