Trade policy, biotechnology and grain self‐sufficiency in China
通过可计算一般均衡模型评估中国维持粮食自给自足的政策选项，发现价格干预成本高昂且与WTO规则冲突，生物技术带来的生产力提升也难达所需水平。
Abstract Over the past 20 years the growth of China's agricultural economy has been extraordinary. However, it seems unlikely that China will maintain self‐sufficiency in grains by 2005 without substantial intervention. We develop a CGE model to assess the options available to Chinese policy makers. We compare the welfare effects of import tariffs and domestic support, and explore the potential of biotechnology as a means to achieve self‐sufficiency through improvements in agricultural productivity. Our results indicate that the price interventions that would be required to maintain China's desired self‐sufficiency ratios are considerable, and are unlikely to be compatible with WTO accession. The productivity improvements required are also significant, and likely beyond the current potential of biotechnology.