不足理由原则的复兴

A Rehabilitation of the Principle of Insufficient Reason

Quarterly Journal of Economics · 1980
被引 2
人大 A+FT50ABS 4*

中文导读

证明期望效用规则的两个公理蕴含不足理由原则,即当决策者完全缺乏状态信息时,必须视所有状态等概率发生,并应用于决策树和解决Savage提出的问题。

Abstract

It is shown that two of the axioms necessary for the expected utility rule imply the Principle of Insufficient Reason. Whenever a decision maker knows the possible states of the world, but completely lacks information about the plausibility of each single state, he has to behave as if all states occurred with the same objective probability, known with certainty. The result is applied to decision trees and used to solve a problem formulated by Savage in order to discredit the classical version of the Principle of In-sufficient Reason.

期望效用公理无差别原则决策树萨维奇问题