Exchange rate target zones, realignments and the interest rate differential: Theory and evidence
构建了一个汇率目标区间模型，其中预期重组概率随汇率偏离中心平价的幅度递增，并推导出利差与汇率偏离的非线性关系，最后用欧洲货币体系数据部分验证了模型。
This paper develops a target zone model for the exchange rate where the expected realignment is an increasing function of the distance of the exchange rate from the central parity, as a percentage of the width of the band. In this framework, the interest rate differential increases with the deviation of the exchange rate from the central parity when the exchange rate is close to the central parity, and it decreases when the exchange rate is close to the edges of the band. Finally, the paper looks at the evidence from the EMS, and finds partial support for the implications of the model.