The implementation of the EC milk quota
构建了一个模型，通过最大化部长理事会的偏好函数来预测欧共体牛奶配额的设定水平，并与历史数据对比验证，适用于研究政策实施机制。
When analysing the process of government policy formation two elements can be identified; the choice of policy instruments [policy-setting] and the setting of the levels of these instruments [policy implementation]. This paper presents a model which attempts to explain the recent implementation of the EC milk quota, while taking the timing of the change in policy instrument and the qualitative choice of new instrument as exogenous. A preference function for the Council of Ministers is presented, which has been estimated using historical milk sector intervention prices. By maximizing this preference function subject to the constraints imposed by a milk sector sub-model, it is possible to derive a forecast of the level of milk quota. This exercise has been undertaken for two years; 1980/81, where the results are compared with those generated by the model when a quota mechanism is not used, and for 1984/85, when the results are compared with the actual decision taken by the Council of Ministers. Possible developments in the specification of the preference function are discussed in the light of these results.