Simulating Fundamental Tax Reform in the United States
使用大规模动态生命周期模拟模型，比较五种替代美国联邦所得税的方案（包括比例消费税和单一税）对福利和宏观经济的影响，发现部分改革能显著提升长期产出，但保护穷人和老年人的改革产出增益较小。
This paper uses a new, large-scale, dynamic life-cycle simulation model to compare the welfare and macroeconomic effects of transitions to five fundamental alternatives to the U.S. federal income tax, including a proportional consumption tax and a flat tax. The model incorporates intragenerational heterogeneity and a detailed specification of alternative tax systems. Simulation results project significant long-run increases in output for some reforms. For other reforms, namely those that seek to insulate the poor and initial older generations from adverse welfare changes, long-run output gains are modest.