Irreversibility, Uncertainty, and Cyclical Investment
研究在投资不可逆且信息随时间逐步到达时，最优投资时机取决于延迟成本与等待信息价值的权衡；不确定性提高等待价值从而抑制当前投资，这有助于解释商业周期中总投资的波动。
The optimal timing of real investment is studied under the assumptions that investment is irreversible and that new information about returns is arriving over time. Investment should be undertaken in this case only when the costs of deferring the project exceed the expected value of information gained by waiting. Uncertainty, because it increases the value of waiting for new information, retards the current rate of investment. The nature of investor's optimal reactions to events whose implications are resolved over time is a possible explanation of the instability of aggregate investment over the business cycle.