An Econometric Analysis of the Impact of Terrorism on Tourism
使用ARIMA模型和转移函数，量化了1970年以来恐怖主义对希腊、意大利和奥地利三国旅游市场份额的影响，并估算了欧洲大陆的旅游收入损失。
This paper quantifies the impact that terrorism has had on tourism since 1970. To accomplish this task, the authors estimate a forecasting equation for a country's (region's) share of tourism using an ARIMA model with a transfer function based on the time series of terrorist attacks in the country (or region). Their results focus on three European countries--Greece, Italy, and Austria--that have experienced noteworthy terrorist attacks since 1970. The authors also calculate revenue losses for continental Europe. Since 1974 these losses are large, amounting to sixteen billion SDRs in present value terms. Much of the loss occurred in the 1980s. Copyright 1992 by WWZ and Helbing & Lichtenhahn Verlag AG