利用仓库劳动力灵活性抵消预测误差

USING WAREHOUSE WORKFORCE FLEXIBILITY TO OFFSET FORECAST ERRORS

JOURNAL OF BUSINESS LOGISTICS · 2004
被引 19
人大 A-ABS 3

中文导读

研究在劳动密集型仓库中,预测误差对成本的影响,发现预测偏差比预测标准差更损害成本,而劳动力灵活性措施(如交叉培训、全职兼职比例)能有效缓冲标准差,但对偏差效果有限。

Abstract

The impact of forecast errors on organizational cost, and the usefulness of worker flexibility measures in offsetting their negative effects were evaluated in a labor intensive warehouse environment. Unlike past studies measuring forecast error in terms of forecast standard deviation , this study also considers the impact of forecast bias, which occurs when the mean of the error distribution is non‐zero. Results indicate that forecast bias is more damaging to warehouse cost, compared to forecast standard deviation. Workforce flexibility measures, such as worker cross‐training and proportion of full and part‐time labor, provide a solid buffer against forecast standard deviation. However, they are much less effective against forecast bias. This has important managerial implications as a large portion of forecast bias is managerially introduced.

运营管理供应链管理人力资源管理预测