The Effects of Inflation Surprises and Uncertainty on Real Wages
建立劳动力市场局部均衡模型，用美国1948-1980年数据估计回归方程，发现通胀意外和不确定性导致实际工资逆周期变动，并强调1973年后石油冲击的重要性。
This paper presents a partial equilibrium model of the labor market that allows the real wage, the expected real wage, and the level of employment to be expressed as functions of unexpected inflation, inflation uncertainty, and supply shocks. Regression equation estimation using U.S. data from 1948 to 1980 suggests that inflationary surprises and uncertainty cause countercycical movement in real wages. Various supply shock variables are introduced. The findings suggest the importance of oil shocks as compared with measures based on food or imports, but only after 1973.