Testing the NAIRU Model for the United States
用美国数据检验NAIRU模型关于通胀与失业率关系的动态含义，结果因通胀指标而异，但普遍拒绝该动态，并提出了替代思路。
This paper tests, using U.S. data, the dynamics implied by the NAIRU view of the relationship between inflation and the unemployment rate. The results are somewhat sensitive to the measure of inflation used, but they generally reject the dynamics. An alternative way of thinking about the relationship between inflation and the unemployment rate is suggested. 1 The NAIRU Model The main purpose of this paper is to test the dynamics implied by the "NAIRU" view of the relationship between inflation and the unemployment rate. This view is that there is a value of the unemployment rate (the NAIRU) below which the price level forever accelerates and above which the price level forever decelerates. The simplest version of the NAIRU equation is # t - # t -1 = #(u t -u # ) +#s t +# t ,#<0,#>0, (1) # Cowles Foundation, Yale University, New Haven, CT 06520-8281. Voice: 203-432-3715; Fax: 203-432-6167; e-mail: ray.fair@yale.edu; website: http://fairmodel.econ.yale.edu. All the data ...