An Empirical Examination of the Procyclicality of R&D Investment and Innovation
首次实证检验了研发投资和创新在经济周期中的顺周期性，发现技术过时快的行业研发支出更顺周期，知识产权保护弱的行业创新更顺周期。
The Schumpeterian opportunity cost hypothesis predicts that firms concentrate innovative activities in recessions. However, empirical evidence suggests that innovative activities are procyclical. Theory proposes that firms shift R&D investments and innovation from recessions to booms to maximize returns by capturing high-demand periods before imitators compete away rents. This paper provides the first empirical test of these predictions. Results indicate that R&D spending is more procyclical in industries with faster obsolescence, where matching invention to demand is more valuable, and innovation is more procyclical in industries with weaker IP protection, where imitation poses a greater threat. © 2014 The President and Fellows of Harvard College and the Massachusetts Institute of Technology