Appraisal Smoothing: The Other Side of the Story
质疑了评估平滑在分析房地产回报时的普遍适用性,发现基于评估的数据可能导致比真实回报更高的方差,建议从房地产市场特性解释低方差现象。
Appraisal smoothing has been widely accepted as an important factor to consider when analyzing real estate returns using appraisal‐based data. In this paper, we demonstrate that the general applicability of the appraisal‐smoothing arguments developed so far in the literature is limited by the assumptions upon which the arguments are based. We further show that the use of appraisal‐based data can result in a higher (not lower) variance than that of true returns. Given this, it might be more fruitful to analyze the unique characteristics of real estate markets as possible explanations for the seemingly low variance observed in appraisal‐based (or transaction‐based) return indexes.