均衡商业周期模型中的资本市场

A Capital Market in an Equilibrium Business Cycle Model

Econometrica · 1980
被引 124
人大 A+FT50ABS 4*

中文导读

在均衡商业周期模型中引入资本市场,发现货币冲击通过影响预期实际收益率来改变商品供给和产出,同时可能通过流动性效应压低名义利率。

Abstract

Previous equilibrium "business cycle" models are extended by the incorporation of an economy-wide capital market.One aspect of this extension is that the relative price that appears in commodity supply and demand functions becomes an anticipated real rate of return on earning assets, rather than a ratio of actual to expected prices.From the standpoint of expectation formation, the key aspect of the extended model is that observation of the economy-wide nominal interest rate conveys current global information to individuals.With respect to the effect of money supply shocks on output, the model yields results that are similar to those generated in simpler models.A new result concerns the behavior of the anticipated real rate of return on earning assets.Because this variable is the pertinent relative price for commodity supply and demand decisions, it turns out to be unambiguous that positive money surprises raise the anticipated real rate of return.In fact, this response provides the essential channel in this equilibrium model by which a money shock can raise the supply of commodities and thereby increase output.However, it is possible through a sort of "liquidity" effect that positive money surprises can depress the economy-wide nominal interest rate.

均衡商业周期模型资本市场预期实际收益率货币冲击