The Cyclic Behavior of the National Office Market
回顾二战后全国写字楼建设与空置率数据，发现约10-12年的周期，通过结构计量模型分析得出市场出清缓慢、供给比需求更敏感，并预测当前供应过剩不会像过去那样快速消失。
A review of the post WWII data on national office building construction and vacancy, reveals a recurrent ten‐twelve year cycle. Specifying and estimating a structural econometric model for these series leads to several conclusions about this commercial real estate sector. First, the office market appears to “clear” quite slowly, and long‐run expectations play an important role in market behavior. Second, supply is definitely more responsive to market conditions than demand. Finally, a six‐year forecast suggests that the current over‐supply in the market will not go away as fast as in the past.