The NAIRU, Unemployment and Monetary Policy
研究发现NAIRU估计不精确，对通胀预测不敏感，失业率并非最佳通胀先行指标，建议货币政策讨论减少对NAIRU的依赖。
This paper examines the precision of conventional estimates of the NAIRU and the role of the NAIRU and unemployment in forecasting inflation. The authors find that, although there is a clear empirical Phillips relation, the NAIRU is imprecisely estimated, forecasts of inflation are insensitive to the NAIRU, and there are other leading indicators of inflation that are at least as good as unemployment. This suggests deemphasizing the NAIRU in public discourse about monetary policy and instead drawing on a richer variety of leading indicators of inflation.