Three and a half cycles of 'mania, panic, and [asymmetric] crash': East Asia and Latin America compared
比较了1982年债务危机、1994年墨西哥危机和1997年东亚危机，指出过度放贷和借贷是流动性过剩且监管不足的金融市场的内生市场失灵，并讨论了巴西面临崩溃风险。
This paper argues that, despite some significant differences, the 1982 debt crisis, the 1994 Mexican crisis, and the current 1997 East Asian crisis share the common characteristic that 'overlending' and 'overborrowing' are basically endogenous market failures of overliquid and underregulated financial markets--along the lines described by C. P. Kindleberger's Manias, Panics, and Crashes(1978) (although these crashes have tended to be 'asymmetric' as the largest international lenders have emerged relatively intact). The paper concludes with a discussion of Brazil's increasing vulnerability to a sudden collapse of confidence and withdrawal of finance, which indicates the probability of another impending crisis. Copyright 1998 by Oxford University Press.