Optimal Expectations and Limited Medical Testing: Evidence from Huntington Disease
研究了亨廷顿病高风险人群的基因检测行为，发现检测率低且随患病风险增加而上升，未检测者持有乐观信念并做出健康决策，符合最优预期模型。
We use novel data to study genetic testing among individuals at risk for Huntington disease (HD), a hereditary disease with limited life expectancy. Although genetic testing is perfectly predictive and carries little economic cost, presymptomatic testing is rare. Testing rates increase with increases in ex ante risk of having HD. Untested individuals express optimistic beliefs about their health and make decisions (e.g., retirement) as if they do not have HD, even though individuals with confirmed HD behave differently. We suggest that these facts can be reconciled by an optimal expectations model (Brunnermeier and Parker 2005).