The use of organized commodity markets to manage food import price instability and risk
研究了低收入缺粮国如何利用期货和期权对冲小麦和玉米进口价格风险，模拟显示期货能有效降低进口成本波动，但期权在2007-2008年价格飙升期间反而增加了某些国家玉米进口的不确定性。
The article explores the possibility of insuring the price risks of wheat and maize imports of low-income food-deficit countries (LIFDCs). Optimal strategies for an importing agent, who hedges with futures and options are derived, based on the objective of minimizing the unpredictability of import bills. Ex post simulations for a set of LIFDCs are run on wheat and maize imports hedged with futures and options in the Chicago Board of Trade, to explore the extent to which hedging reduces the unpredictability in import bills. Simulations encompass both periods of normal price behavior, as well as the period of global upheaval that occurred in 2007 and 2008. Results show that hedging with futures alone affords agents considerable opportunities for reducing import cost unpredictability, and the same holds with options, albeit, to a lesser extent. However, during the recent price spike of 2007–2008, hedging with options would have increased the unpredictability of some countries’ maize import bills, due to the combination of erratic import patterns and pronounced market uncertainty.