Stock Market Bubbles? A Reply
这篇论文回应了关于股市泡沫的争论，指出有效市场模型无法解释股价过度波动、封闭式基金悖论和长期收益可预测性等异常现象，并对比了两种对立解释。
Research in finance is guided by powerful intuitions from models of efficient markets. However, researchers have uncovered a number of puzzles that are not explained by these models. Such anomalies include the excess volatility of stock prices, the closed-end mutual fund paradox, and the mean reversion in stock prices that produces predictable returns for long holding periods. 1 Whereas financial economists all recognize the existence of these puzzles, they disagree about how they can be explained. Robert J. Shiller argues, for example, that efficient-markets models cannot hope to explain these anomalies and looks to alternatives that incorporate fads. 2 In contrast, John H. Cochrane believes that the puzzles can be explained by improved models of fundamentals. 3