SIMULTANEITY IN THE UK DAIRY SECTOR*
研究了英国乳制品行业中牛群规模、淘汰数量、后备母牛价格和牛奶价格之间的联立关系，发现提高牛奶价格的政策效果会被供给增加抵消超过50%。
Because of the high degree of interdependence in the livestock sector, the endogenous variables of econometric models should be simultaneously determined. This paper describes the specification, estimation and evaluation of a model of the UK dairy sector in which the herd size, number of culls, replacement heifer price and milk price are determined simultaneously. The major policy conclusion that emerges from the model is that any attempt to increase the price of milk received by farmers via a structural change in the policy rule used to fix the price will be offset by over 50% as a result of increases in the supply of milk.