Momentum or Deceleration? Theoretical and Methodological Reflections on the Analysis of Organizational Change
质疑了组织变革中“重复动量”的共识，通过理论论证和三个数据集的分析，发现控制异质性后，先前变化反而降低后续变化概率，支持“减速”机制。
Research on organizational change has consistently shown that prior change increases the probability of further change, which supports the view that repetitive momentum governs change processes. We challenge this consensus, offering theoretical arguments for the opposite: Change propensity decreases as changes accumulate. We argue that unobserved heterogeneity in the inherent change propensity of organizations has biased prior results. Analyses of three data sets yielded positive effects of prior change on further change when we used the methodology of earlier studies. However, fixed-effects models that control for heterogeneity yielded negative effects. We conclude that deceleration, not repetitive momentum, governs change processes.