Risk and the Home Equity Conversion Mortgage
分析了反向抵押贷款保险的风险，解释了住房权益转换抵押贷款（HECM）的定价模型，说明借款人寿命、利率和房产价值变化如何影响定价，以及为何选择随机游走模型预测房产价值。
This article analyzes the risks involved with reverse mortgage insurance and explains the pricing model developed for the Home Equity Conversion Mortgage (HECM) demonstration. The paper demonstrates how borrower longevity, interest rates and property value changes all affect pricing, and why the HECM model focuses on property value as the primary source of uncertainty. It goes on to explain why a random walk specification was chosen to forecast property values, and how the principal limit factors, which determine cash payments to borrowers in the HECM program, are calculated.