INFLUENCE OF MISSING ATTRIBUTES ON SELECTING A BEST MULTIATTRIBUTED ALTERNATIVE
研究了当评估因素不完整时,选择最佳多属性方案可能频繁或严重选错,并提出了反映决策影响的新标准,实证表明高统计标准值可能掩盖选错风险。
ABSTRACT Alternatives involving many factors arc difficult to evaluate because of multiple underlying competing objectives. If evaluation is based on an incomplete set of factors, and if the purpose of the evaluation is to select a single overall best alternative, inferior alternatives may be selected with surprising frequency and/or severe negative impact. At the same time, sensitivity analysis of evaluation scores based on statistical criteria can easily mask the impact and the frequency of selection of inferior alternatives. In this paper, criteria appropriate to reflect the decision impact are developed and both the frequency and impact of the selection of inferior alternatives are demonstrated empirically. Previous studies based on statistical criteria [1] [9] indicated minimal impact on overall evaluation and selection. This paper demonstrates that high statistical criterion values coexist with frequent and/or serious errors of selection.